One Degree · with Michael Carroll

We help leaders read the probability of consequence.

The advantage is not intelligence — it is decision architecture. We work with executives to see a consequence before it arrives, and to hold the one degree that changes where it lands.

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Explore the ideas

200+ dispatches and growing, charted as one instrument.

The One-Degree Dispatch — the full body of thinking on decision architecture, authority, causal AI, and market shaping — rendered as a living 3D instrument you can walk, search, and read. It's the argument, made navigable.

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A cinematic essay

The distance is the danger.

Blitzkrieg. Pearl Harbor. Midway. The bomb. Five cases where the distance from signal to legitimate action decided everything — told as an immersive, archival reading experience, prologue to coda. By Mike Carroll, Ryan Cahalane & Sudeep Kesh.

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How we work

Four ways to build the capability.

Advisory when the decision is in front of you. Executive training and mentoring when the organization needs the muscle. Speaking when the room needs to see it. Writing when you want the whole argument.

Advisory

Advisory

Board- and COO-level counsel on the architecture beneath your hardest decisions — where latency, authority, and evidence actually live — and the product strategy that turns it into a durable edge.

  • Product & platform strategy
  • Decision-architecture diagnostics
  • Industrial-AI strategy & readiness
  • Standing counsel for the executive team
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Executive Training

Executive Training & Mentoring

Cohort programs, workshops, and one-on-one mentoring that install the way of seeing — so your leaders can read consequence and act before value decays.

  • Executive workshops & masterclasses
  • One-on-one mentoring for senior leaders
  • The Eight Board Questions
  • Custom cohorts for leadership teams
Inquire about a cohort →
Speaking

Speaking

Keynotes and executive briefings that reframe AI, authority, and decision-making for the people who have to act on them. Innovator of the Year (ASPI, 2019) · Visionary of the Year (Smart Industry, 2020).

  • Keynotes & fireside conversations
  • Board & leadership offsites
  • Topics: authority not intelligence · shape the market or be shaped
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Publishing

Writing & Publishing

The One-Degree Dispatch — an ongoing body of essays on reading the probability of consequence, and the work that grows from it.

  • The Dispatch — 200+ essays & counting
  • Books & long-form in progress
  • Licensing & syndication
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Watch & listen

The thinking, in conversation.

Podcasts and interviews where the ideas get pressure-tested — control at machine speed, causal models over chat interfaces, and what agency means when machines begin to reason with us.

Bold Agendas · with Mimi Brooks

Control at Machine Speed

When decisions happen at machine speed, control can no longer rely on oversight after the fact.
AI in Manufacturing

Unlocking Productivity With Causal Models & Agentic AI

Why causal infrastructure plus agentic AI is a structural shift — and how manufacturers close the productivity gap.
Manufacturing Talks · with Radu Spineanu

Need Help With AI in Manufacturing? Here You Go!

Causal models over chat interfaces; trust and permission decide whether AI can act.
The Only Constant · Ep. 71

On the Nature of Agency, and the Value of Discomfort

The shift from automation to true agency — when AI begins to reason with us, and sometimes for us.
Bold Agendas · with Mimi Brooks

The New Digital Divide: From Access to Agency

Access to logic — not just data — is the new battleground.
S&P Global · Podcast

Artificial Intelligence Insights: Agentic AI

A conversation with the market on agentic AI — opportunities, risks, and impacts.
Proven in the field

Causal AI in production — not in theory.

Michael pioneered Causal AI and Special Purpose Intelligence in industrial operations at Georgia-Pacific — work IDC named a new market category, Deep Automation.

“What Georgia-Pacific is doing with Causal AI is remarkable” — a 10× improvement in touchless order processing, with errors that once took days now resolved in seconds. Forbes · Steve Banker, 2024 — read the piece ↗
Team

The people behind One Degree.

Michael Carroll

Michael Carroll

Founder · AI Researcher & Investor

AI researcher, founder, investor, and board advisor in Industrial AI, causal systems, and enterprise transformation. Fellow of The COO Council at LNS Research and former VP of Innovation at Georgia-Pacific, where he pioneered Causal AI and Special Purpose Intelligence in industrial operations — work IDC named a new market category. Innovator of the Year (ASPI, 2019) · Visionary of the Year (Smart Industry, 2020).

LinkedIn ↗
The One-Degree Dispatch

Read the argument. Then explore it.

Every dispatch is free to read. Browse the full index, or step into the Radiant and follow the ideas across the whole corpus.

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Start a conversation

The right one degree, held long enough, changes everything.

Tell us the decision in front of you. We'll tell you whether — and how — we can help.

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